Trump scenario from Allianz
Allianz announced that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may want to reduce interest rates before Donald Trump wins the possible US elections.
Allianz SE’s Chief Economist Ludovic Subran announced at the Invisso Global ABS conference in Barcelona that the Fed may want to reduce interest rates before Donald Trump wins the possible US elections.
“My real question is whether the Fed can continue to cut rates if Trump comes back. Powell may well want to front-load some of the rate cuts,” Subran said. said.
Subran said that Trump’s victory in the USA is the biggest political uncertainty for the markets this year and stated that such an event would be reflationary.
The soft landing scenario predicted by the markets may not turn out as expected if Trump wins.
Trump’s “hush money” case
US President Trump was indicted by a grand jury on March 18, 2023, as part of the investigation conducted by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office regarding the illegal “hush fee” payment to Stormy Daniels, an actress in adult films, during the 2016 presidential elections.
Trump appeared before a judge in New York on April 4, 2023, for “hush money” and fraud in related records. Rejecting 34 separate accusations against him, Trump described the allegations against him as a “political witch hunt” and stated that he saw the accusations as “interference in elections”.
Trump was found guilty by the jury of all 34 charges against him in the “hush money” trial in New York for about 6 weeks.
In three separate ongoing lawsuits against him, Trump is being tried on charges of “hiding secret documents”, “trying to interfere with the election results” and “trying to change the election results” in the state of Georgia.
How will this decision affect the presidential race?
Although it does not legally prevent him from running in the elections, it is being discussed whether the situation of being “found guilty” and potentially receiving a prison sentence will be in favor or against Trump.
One in four Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted in his criminal case, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters in April.
In the same poll, 60 percent of independents said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a crime.