S&P 500 Forecast from Goldman Sachs
According to Goldman Sachs Group Strategist David Kostin, the S&P 500 Index is unlikely to make further gains between now and the end of the year.
Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist Kostin reiterated in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Tuesday that his target price for the S&P 500 is at 5,200 points and said he “anticipates approximately flat returns between now and the end of the year.”
Kostin’s forecast is just below the 5,246 point level reached by the S&P 500, which has risen 10 percent since January, at the close of Tuesday. Kostin said the bank’s model, which takes into account the economy, balance sheets, valuations and cash flow, shows there is no room for further upside. Goldman economists predict US economic growth of around 3 percent this year. The bank’s stock strategists expect company profitability growth to be 8 percent in 2024.
According to strategists, company valuations are already at historical highs. Although Kostin says that further growth in all these categories is possible, he sees this probability as low. While Kostin noted that the risk to his forecast is that interest rates will decrease faster than market expectations, he stated that this is not the base scenario. “Our base scenario is that towards the end of the year the market will trade at this multiple or even lower multiple,” Kostin said.